Lloyd Potter
Texas State Demographer
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Texas Population Projections Program

The Texas Demographic Center generates biennial population projections for the state and its counties by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The projections should be used only with full awareness of the inherent limitations of population projections and with detailed knowledge of the procedures and assumptions delineated in the methodology document.

Vintage 2024 Projections

The Texas Demographic Center Vintage 2024 projections consist of the state's residential population by age, sex, and race/ethnicity for each year from 2020 through 2060. The projections are available under multiple migration scenarios.

Important user notes

Major changes have been made to the Vintage 2024 methodology. Users may notice differences in the following areas:

  1. The data includes April 1st, 2020 Decennial Census Counts and the projection for the July 1st, 2020 population. The two 2020 records are distinguished by the “year_month” column.
  2. The projected population from 2020 to 2024 is aligned with the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 July 1st Estimates.
  3. The projections are available with three migration scenarios, mid, low, and high, corresponding to the three national projection series produced by the Census Bureau in 2023.

Population Projections 2020-2060
Suggested Citations

County-level population projections will be released soon.

Projections Methodology

Review the methodology prior to using the data.

File Downloads

Mid Migration Scenario

Assumes the US and Texas migration patterns remain similar to the past two decades. Recommended for most purposes.

High Migration Scenario

Assumes a higher migration scenario than the average patterns in the past two decades. Recommended for use when immigration levels are high.

Low Migration Scenario

Assumes a lower migration scenario than the average pattern in the past two decades. Recommended for use when immigration levels are low.